Over the past month, Rolex’s 2024 new releases have gradually hit the market, triggering a fresh wave of price drops. The 41mm Oyster Perpetual with vibrant dials—particularly the “avocado green” (ref. 134300-0006, retailing at ¥54,200)—initially saw reseller quotes near ¥150,000 before stabilizing around ¥120,000. Its “khaki yellow” counterpart (ref. 134300-0007) now trades just above ¥110,000.
The new green-gold Daytona (ref. 126508-0008, retail ¥393,000) followed a steeper trajectory. Inspired by the previous model’s ¥1 million peak, early resellers like Zhang San listed it at ¥1.1 million. However, bids quickly fell to ¥1.05 million, then ¥1 million when acquired by dealer Li Si. Facing tepid demand, Li offloaded it at ¥950,000 to Wang Wu, who ultimately sold to a consumer for ¥880,000. Current market prices hover near ¥700,000.
Market Shifts Force Transparency in Pricing
This year’s反常 trend involves unprecedented price transparency. Unlike past years where dealers obscured “early adopter premiums,” many now publicly list fixed prices on social media. “The colorful Oyster Perpetuals are harder to move than expected,” admitted one dealer holding multiple green-dial units. “Inventory and inquiries abound, but buyers hesitate. Public pricing shows our willingness to adjust.”
Caution Advised for Prospective Buyers
Industry observers warn against rushing into new models. With neither “first-batch” exclusivity nor adjusted retailer bundling requirements, current prices remain inflated by intermediary speculation. As dealer capacity to absorb overpriced inventory wanes, official bundling terms—and consequently secondary market prices—are expected to decline. Historical patterns suggest stabilization by October, potentially saving buyers tens of thousands.
Established Models Show Stability
In contrast, Rolex’s mainstream references have settled post-pandemic corrections:
Steel Daytonas: White dial (ref. 126500) rose from ¥225,000 to ¥230,000; black dial holds at ¥200,000.
GMT-Master II: “Pepsi” on Jubilee climbed from ¥150,000 to ¥160,000+, while “Batman” and “Sprite” sit at ¥123,500 and ¥132,000 respectively.
Day-Date “Black Candy”: Defying trends, it jumped from ¥445,000 to ¥470,000 since March.
Analysts attribute the divergence to balanced supply-demand dynamics in core models versus speculative froth surrounding new releases.
