A recent survey by Subdial, in partnership with WatchPro and Esquire, polled 2,500 watch enthusiasts on industry trends—including whether 2025 will be a strong year for watches. While 64% expressed optimism, the reality may hinge on whether one focuses on the primary or secondary market.
The survey crowned Omega’s white-dial Speedmaster Moonwatch as “Watch of the Year,” while jokingly condemning Bremont to the “worst year in watchmaking history.” Yet the final question—binary in nature—sparked debate: Is the industry poised for a rebound, or is trouble ahead?
Primary Market Struggles vs. Secondary Market Resilience
Industry exports continue declining, and reports of unsold inventory and boutique closures suggest headwinds for new watches. However, Subdial’s founders argue the secondary market tells a different story. After a two-year correction, pre-owned prices are stabilizing—Subdial x Bloomberg’s index shows the smallest quarterly decline (0.9%) since 2022.
“The secondary market is now rational,” noted one analyst. Platforms like Subdial and certified pre-owned programs have boosted buyer confidence, offering quality pieces at accessible prices. For collectors priced out of retail, 2025 could indeed be promising.
The “Mescalisation” Myth: Small Watches Won’t Dominate
The secondary market’s vintage surge has fueled the trend for smaller watches, popularized by celebrities like Timothée Chalamet and Barry Keoghan. Yet history suggests this is fleeting.
“When oversized U-Boat watches peaked pre-2008, everyone said it was permanent,” recalled a veteran dealer. “Then came the crash, and 39mm returned.” Brands may flirt with smaller cases, but unless targeting women, the pendulum will swing back.
The Bottom Line
For primary-market brands, 2025 looks challenging. But for secondary buyers, the correction has created opportunity—making the survey’s optimism half-right, depending on where you stand.
As one insider quipped, “Noah’s gathering wood, but at least the secondary market’s ark is well-stocked.”
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